Author: kirkgpsw

CURRENT WATCHS/WARNINGS:
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 12am on Aug 5th.
Tropical Storm Watch

ISAIAS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE… …EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY…

11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 Location: 30.7°N 80.1°W Moving: N at 13 mph Min pressure: 998 mb Max sustained: 70 mph

Tropical Storm Isaias is currently located just offshore of the northeast Florida coast. The storm is expected to continue northward along the East Coast. It will likely move inland over the Carolinas this evening and approach our region by late tonight and especially Tuesday. Impacts should diminish by Wednesday morning.

The main threats with this system are heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and some river flooding, strong winds especially near the coast, minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding, and dangerous marine conditions.

We are most concerned about flash flooding caused by 4 to 6 inches of rain, as well as strong winds along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts with wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph possible. Secondary threats include minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, especially in Chesapeake Bay, as well as the potential for isolated tornadoes. Dangerous rip currents and 8 to 12 foot seas are also expected over the waters.

Along the river and ocean expect to see 1 to 3 feet of storm surge inundation along those area. The Philadelphia metro area will have the greatest threat for FLASH FLOODING rain late tonight into tomorrow.

Tornados: The main threat of isolated tornadoes will be during the day hours on Tuesday. The best chance of an isolated tornado will be along/southeast of i95.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon until Tuesday evening

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: Tuesday morning until Tuesday evening

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
        - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
          above ground.
        - PREPARE: Efforts should now be underway to prepare for  storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas.
        - ACT: Take actions to protect life and property. Prepare to leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized inundation is possible with storm surge flooding mainly along tidal creeks and rivers and in low-lying spots.
        - Sections of near-river roads and parking lots could become overspread with surge water. Dangerous driving conditions  are possible in places where surge water covers the road.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for  major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take  action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events.

        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions.

        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

11:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 2
Location: 26.9°N 79.6°W
Moving: NNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

At this hour Isaias have been downgraded to a tropical storm, while the storm was downgraded please note that this is a strong powerful storm. Isaias will bring between 2-5″ of rain (locally higher amounts) to most of the area.
We will see tropical storm force winds as early as late Monday night into Tuesday night. The current track has Isaias moving up the east coast and bringing the storm center right over parts of the area. The NHC “cone” has the center of the storm just off the New Jersey Coast.

Some uncertainty continues regarding the future track, intensity, and timing of this storm which will also affect the ultimate impacts for our region.

Confidence is high that increased swells and rip current risk along the coasts will arrive this weekend and continue through at least Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible, primarily for coastal locations and the adjacent waters Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Heavy rain leading to flooding is a concern even for areas outside the tropical storm force wind conditions, and is our greatest concern with this storm.