The first widespread freeze of the season is likely Friday night into Saturday morning across inland central and south Jersey, the urban corridor of Southeast Pennsylvania, and northern Delmarva.
Tropical Storm Zeta was on the verge of strengthening into a hurricane on Monday as it swirled over the Caribbean Sea. While Zeta will make landfall along the gulf coast, Our area could see heavy rain as early as Thursday and continue into Friday night. At this point locations to our well north near the NY/PA border could see snow as this system moves north.
Our team will bring you the latest as the week goes on but Thursday and Friday will be washouts with the sun returning for Halloween this coming Saturday.
We are a GO for launch from Wallops tomorrow (Oct 1st).
NASA commercial cargo provider Northrop Grumman is targeting Thursday, Oct. 1, for the launch of its 14th resupply mission to the International Space Station. The five-minute launch window opens at 9:38 p.m. EDT.
Loaded with nearly 8,000 pounds of research, crew supplies, and hardware, Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus cargo spacecraft will launch on the company’s Antares rocket from Virginia Space’s Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia.
The latest Wallops Launch Range forecast, issued this afternoon, remains at 70% probability for favorable weather. Cloud ceilings and cloud cover are the main concerns.
The launch may be visible, weather permitting and depending on other local conditions (such as elevation), to residents up and down the East Coast of the United States.
When accessed from a smartphone browser, the Wallops Mission Status Center website can provide specific viewing information based on location.
Due to restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, the NASA Visitor Center at Wallops will be CLOSED for this launch.
Live coverage of the launch will begin at 9 p.m. EDT and air on NASA Television and the agency’s website. Live coverage and countdown commentary also will stream on social media.
The Cygnus spacecraft, dubbed the SS Kalpana Chawla, will arrive at the space station Sunday, Oct. 4. Expedition 63 Commander Chris Cassidy of NASA will grapple Cygnus and Flight Engineer Ivan Vagner of Roscosmos will act as a backup. After Cygnus capture, mission control in Houston will send ground commands for the station’s robotic arm to rotate and install it on the bottom of the station’s Unity module. Cygnus is scheduled to remain at the space station until mid-December, when it will depart the station. Following departure, the Saffire-V experiment will be conducted prior to Cygnus deorbit and disposing of several tons of trash during a fiery re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere approximately two weeks later.
Story from NASA.
Happy Distanced New Year. The iconic ball drop celebration in New York’s Times Square will go virtual this year, organizers announced yesterday.
“More than ever in these divided and fear-filled times, the world desperately needs to come together symbolically and virtually to celebrate the people and things we love and to look forward with a sense of renewal and new beginnings,” said Tim Tompkins, president of the Times Square Alliance, co-producer of the event with Countdown Entertainment, in a statement.
“One thing that will never change is the ticking of time and the arrival of a New Year at midnight on December 31st,” said Tompkins. “But this year there will be significantly new and enhanced virtual, visual and digital offerings to complement whatever limited live entertainment or experiences – still in development – will take place in Times Square. And because any opportunity to be live in Times Square will be pre-determined and extremely limited due to Covid-19 restrictions, there will be the opportunity to participate virtually wherever you are.”
Early next week the United States could see TWO tropical systems along the Gulf of Mexico. In the event anything changes with this forecast we will bring you the latest information. As of this time the track is uncertain and we do expect some changes are possible. Folks along the Gulf should start to prepare for a Hurricane and Tropical Storm.
Tropical Depression 13 is expected to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm today. The forecast suggest that this storm will become a HURRICANE and is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 20
Location: 16.0°N 52.0°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Tropical Depression 14 has formed over the West/Central Caribbean Sea this morning. This storm is forecasted to hit the Tx/LA coast as early as Tuesday.
11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 20
Location: 15.1°N 79.7°W
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
CURRENT WATCHS/WARNINGS:
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 12am on Aug 5th.
Tropical Storm Watch
| ISAIAS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE… …EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY… |
| 11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 Location: 30.7°N 80.1°W Moving: N at 13 mph Min pressure: 998 mb Max sustained: 70 mph |
Tropical Storm Isaias is currently located just offshore of the northeast Florida coast. The storm is expected to continue northward along the East Coast. It will likely move inland over the Carolinas this evening and approach our region by late tonight and especially Tuesday. Impacts should diminish by Wednesday morning. The main threats with this system are heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and some river flooding, strong winds especially near the coast, minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding, and dangerous marine conditions. We are most concerned about flash flooding caused by 4 to 6 inches of rain, as well as strong winds along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts with wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph possible. Secondary threats include minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, especially in Chesapeake Bay, as well as the potential for isolated tornadoes. Dangerous rip currents and 8 to 12 foot seas are also expected over the waters.
Along the river and ocean expect to see 1 to 3 feet of storm surge inundation along those area. The Philadelphia metro area will have the greatest threat for FLASH FLOODING rain late tonight into tomorrow.
Tornados: The main threat of isolated tornadoes will be during the day hours on Tuesday. The best chance of an isolated tornado will be along/southeast of i95.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon until Tuesday evening
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Tuesday morning until Tuesday evening
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
- PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
above ground.
- PREPARE: Efforts should now be underway to prepare for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas.
- ACT: Take actions to protect life and property. Prepare to leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized inundation is possible with storm surge flooding mainly along tidal creeks and rivers and in low-lying spots.
- Sections of near-river roads and parking lots could become overspread with surge water. Dangerous driving conditions are possible in places where surge water covers the road.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major flooding rain
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
11:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 2
Location: 26.9°N 79.6°W
Moving: NNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
At this hour Isaias have been downgraded to a tropical storm, while the storm was downgraded please note that this is a strong powerful storm. Isaias will bring between 2-5″ of rain (locally higher amounts) to most of the area.
We will see tropical storm force winds as early as late Monday night into Tuesday night. The current track has Isaias moving up the east coast and bringing the storm center right over parts of the area. The NHC “cone” has the center of the storm just off the New Jersey Coast.
Some uncertainty continues regarding the future track, intensity, and timing of this storm which will also affect the ultimate impacts for our region.
Confidence is high that increased swells and rip current risk along the coasts will arrive this weekend and continue through at least Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible, primarily for coastal locations and the adjacent waters Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Heavy rain leading to flooding is a concern even for areas outside the tropical storm force wind conditions, and is our greatest concern with this storm.
The Greater Philadelphia Severe Weather team is tracking Hurricane Isaias from our location in Fairless Hills, Pa. While at this hour the track and intensity of the storms impacts to our area are unknown, confidence is increasing that we will see impacts from the storm.
At this point the main threat for our area is Tropical Storm Force winds (39mph to 73mph) starting Monday night and lasting until Tuesday night. The greatest threat at this time will be along the coast. Heavy rainfall will also become a major concern Monday night through late Tuesday night.
Impacts:
Winds- Strong potential for damaging winds across a large portion of the area, Monday night through Tuesday night.
Flooding Rains– Threat of flooding rains Monday night through Tuesday night across Eastern PA, NJ and Delaware.
Early indications and models are showing possible 2-4″ of rain across most of the area with localized areas up to 6″ of rain across parts of the east coast.
We will bring you the latest updates as the storm gets closer. At this point prepare for the power outages across parts of the area. If you are planning on going down the shore this weekend, we advise you not to go into the water due to swells and rip currents.
HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST… …SQUALLY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
Latest Information
11:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 31
Location: 21.7°N 74.5°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Our team will be providing updates throughout the weekend. At this time we feel we will see some impacts. We will bring you the latest info as it comes in.