High Winds This Afternoon

As you can feel we have a GREAT Weather day but it won’t last long. While temps are in the 60s across most of the area. We will see a cold front move across the area late afternoon. When this front moves across the area wind gust 40-50 mph are possible. By late tonight temps will be in the upper 30s/low 40s.

As of this time the Wednesday systems looks to bring light snow to most of the area C-2” is very possible but a more official forecast will come later.

Until then enjoy this great weather.

Mid Week Storm Update

The low pressure system that will pass by on Wednesday could bring a few inches of snow to parts of the area highest chance right now is to our south. While at this time things are still very uncertain on how much precip will fall. Take everything with a grain of salt.

The latest model trends have began to keep the low to our southeast which would favor any precipitation to be mostly snow, tho along the coast it could be a rain/snow mix. BUT if this continues to trend to the southeast then most of the precip will be over the ocean and not much over land. The third option is that it moves further northwest resulting in a rain/snow mix for most of us. As you will see below we have two snapshots of two models around the same time, two completely different forecast.

At this point it appears most of this will fall during the day on Wednesday. The big concern would be the wet driving conditions on Wednesday morning. While it is unclear how much snow will fall but if I had to guess right now a general 1-2″ is possible. We will be following the trends overnight and have more on this post updated as models run.

18z Models

The 18z Nam at 69hrs shows snow over most of the area.
The 18z GFS at 72 hrs shows light snow/mix over parts of the area. But we can see the main system to the south.

All Eyes On Mid-Week Storm Threat…..

A low pressure system could bring some winter weather to parts of the Northeast late Tuesday night into Wednesday. While at this point the track is highly uncertain but the threat of winter weather is possible. How much and what type of precipitation is too early to tell at this point but some signs are starting to develop.

If this system tracks to our southeast we might not see much warm air in which case could bring more snow to the area. If the storm tracks over the closer to our region it will bring in warmer air resulting in rain for most of the area. A third option is the track takes the storm further off the coast which would keep most of the precipitation off shore.

The timing in which the precipitation will fall also places a huge factor. If it is a majority falls in the daytime hours we will see more potentially more rain. However if the storm moves into the area in the overnight hours some would potentially see more snow/mix. At this time please take this with a grain of salt.

We are going to be keeping a very close eye on this developing storm and will bring you the latest updates as models run.

The 0zGFS run is showing the Rain/Snow Mix line very close to i95 corridor. While a lot of things can happen between now and Wed. We are going to keep a close eye on this storm and bring you the latest tomorrow afternoon after the 12z runs.

As you can see the 00z GFS shows the Rain/Snow line close to the area. Again this is not a forecast from GPSW we are just sharing what the models are showing at this point.
Here is another model that is around the same time period but shows a different outcome.

Snowy Sunday Night for Mount Pocono

This afternoon as a cold front pushes across the area parts of the area will see strong to severe gusty thunderstorms. The biggest threat area will be in Eastern NJ. Timing is from around noon until 4pm. As the storms roll through you will feel a big difference as we head into this evening as temps will take a dive. Wind gust will be 40-50mph are possible, even small hail. While not everyone will see severe storms the threat is possible for many.





FLOOD WATCH WATCH in effect until late Saturday night

.
The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northern Delaware...New Jersey...and Pennsylvania...
  including the following areas...in northern Delaware...New Castle.
  In New Jersey...Atlantic, Camden, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland,
  Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex,
  Morris, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset,
  Southeastern Burlington, Warren, and Western Monmouth. In
  Pennsylvania...Berks, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern
  Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper
  Bucks, Western Chester, and Western Montgomery.

* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Saturday night.

* A slow-moving weather system will affect the region today and
  Saturday.  Thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon and
  evening, with additional storms possible tonight through much of
  Saturday. With hot and humid conditions in advance of this system,
  storms will likely produce torrential downpours. As storms are
  also expected to be slow-moving, there is elevated potential for
  localized flash flooding, especially in more vulnerable urban
  areas and in locations that received substantial rainfall during
  the past couple of weeks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Heat Advisory has been issued for Heat Index Values of 103º expected.

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 103 expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Somerset, Middlesex, Mercer,
  Gloucester, Camden and Northwestern Burlington. In
  Pennsylvania, Delaware, Philadelphia and Lower Bucks. In
  Delaware, New Castle.

* WHEN...From noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heat index values may be near 100 degrees
  again on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2PM TODAY UNTIL MONDAY MORNING

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a FLOOD WATCH


* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday morning.

* Periods of heavy rain will be possible from this afternoon
  continuing through Sunday night due to the close approach of
  Henri. Rain amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected with locally
  higher amounts possible.

* Flash flooding will be possible through this time. In addition,
  slower rises on rivers and streams will be possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

GPSW Heat Advisory

Heat Advisory In Effect Noon Friday until 8pm Saturday

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 102 expected.

* WHERE...The urban corridor of northern Delaware, southeast
  Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

Tropical Storm ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT RACES TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS

Late last night Tropical Storm Elsa was named in the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to head toward the Caribbean by Friday, where warnings have been issued for the Windward and Leeward Islands. Residents of the Caribbean and Florida should track the progress of Elsa closely through the holiday weekend.

A large uncertainty is when and how sharp the system is expected to make a northwestward turn later this weekend and early next week. If Elsa tracks toward Florida, later Monday or Tuesday appears to be the earliest this system could impact parts of South Florida. At this point it is too early to tell if Elsa will cause any issues up the East Coast but we are keeping an eye on the storm.

The Greater Philadelphia Severe Weather Team will bring you the latest on this storm as it tracks towards the US.

Below are two different model, please note these are just for reference NOT for use in decision making purposes.