Tropical Storm Watch Issued

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued until further notice for the NJ/DE coast ahead of Tropical Storm Elsa. Elsa has just made landfall in Fl. We will bring you updates over the next few days. 


* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - NJ and DE Coastal Areas 
* THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: Thursday morning until Friday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
        - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
          above ground.
        - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding,
          especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions
          become unsafe.
        - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
          your area.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
          immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
          farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
        - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become
          overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous
          in places where surge water covers the road.
        - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes,
          mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
        - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks,
          boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from
          moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
          swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

Tropical Storm ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT RACES TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS

Late last night Tropical Storm Elsa was named in the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to head toward the Caribbean by Friday, where warnings have been issued for the Windward and Leeward Islands. Residents of the Caribbean and Florida should track the progress of Elsa closely through the holiday weekend.

A large uncertainty is when and how sharp the system is expected to make a northwestward turn later this weekend and early next week. If Elsa tracks toward Florida, later Monday or Tuesday appears to be the earliest this system could impact parts of South Florida. At this point it is too early to tell if Elsa will cause any issues up the East Coast but we are keeping an eye on the storm.

The Greater Philadelphia Severe Weather Team will bring you the latest on this storm as it tracks towards the US.

Below are two different model, please note these are just for reference NOT for use in decision making purposes.

Flood Watch IN Effect until 8am Friday July 2, 2021

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northern Delaware...New Jersey...and southeast
  Pennsylvania...including the following areas...in northern
  Delaware...New Castle. In New Jersey...Camden, Gloucester,
  Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Northwestern Burlington, Salem,
  Somerset, and Western Monmouth. In southeast Pennsylvania...
  Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks,
  Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and Western Montgomery.

* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning.

* Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon through the overnight hours tonight. Rain rates of 2
  inches per hour will be possible at times. Widespread total rain
  amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely, with locally higher amounts
  possible.

* Heavy rain in short periods of time will cause the potential for
  streams and creeks to quickly rise out of their banks as well as
  the potential for flash flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Flash Flood Watch In Effect 3pm This Afternoon Through This Evening.

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of northern Delaware...southern New
  Jersey...and southeast Pennsylvania...including the following
  areas...in northern Delaware...New Castle. In southern New
  Jersey...Camden, Gloucester, Northwestern Burlington, and Salem.
  In southeast Pennsylvania...Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern
  Montgomery, Lower Bucks, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western
  Chester, and Western Montgomery.

* From 3 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening.

* Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid afternoon
  over western Maryland into central Pennsylvania and move eastward
  into the region by late this afternoon into this evening. These
  storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall over a short
  period of time which may result in flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

BREAKING: Colonial Pipeline has been restarted at 5pm EDT today.

PRESS RELEASE FROM COLONIAL PIPELINE

Colonial Pipeline initiated the restart of pipeline operations today at approximately 5 p.m. ET.

Following this restart, it will take several days for the product delivery supply chain to return to normal. Some markets served by Colonial Pipeline may experience, or continue to experience, intermittent service interruptions during the start-up period. Colonial will move as much gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel as is safely possible and will continue to do so until markets return to normal.

As we initiate our return to service, our primary focus remains safety. As part of this startup process, Colonial will conduct a comprehensive series of pipeline safety assessments in compliance with all Federal pipeline safety requirements.

This is the first step in the restart process and would not have been possible without the around-the-clock support of Colonial Pipeline’s dedicated employees who have worked tirelessly to help us achieve this milestone. We would also like to thank the White House for their leadership and collaboration, as well as the Department of Energy, Department of Transportation, FBI, PHMSA, FERC and other federal, state and local agencies for their ongoing support.

We will continue to provide updates as restart efforts progress.

NASA Wallops May 8 Rocket Launch Visible in Eastern United States

Press Release issued by NASA:


A mission to explore energy transport in space using a NASA suborbital sounding rocket launching May 8, 2021, from NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia may provide a brief light show for residents of the eastern United States and Bermuda.

The mission is scheduled for no earlier than 8:02 p.m. EDT with a 40-minute launch window, Saturday, May 8. Backup launch days run through May 16. The launch may be visible, weather permitting, in much of the eastern United States from the Atlantic coast to the Mississippi River.

A four-stage Black Brant XII rocket will be used for the mission that includes the release of barium vapor that will form two green-violet clouds that may be visible for about 30 seconds. The barium vapor is not harmful to the environment or public health

The mission, called the KiNETic-scale energy and momentum transport eXperiment, or KiNet-X, is designed to study a very fundamental problem in space plasmas, namely, how are energy and momentum transported between different regions of space that are magnetically connected?  

The vapor will be released approximately 9 minutes and 30 seconds to around 10 minutes after launch at about 217-249 miles altitude over the Atlantic Ocean and 540-560 miles downrange from Wallops and just north of Bermuda.

Immediately after release of the vapor, the spherical clouds are a mixture of green and violet, but that phase only lasts about 30 seconds when the un-ionized component of the cloud has diffused away. After exposure to sunlight the vapor clouds quickly ionize and take on a violet color. 

The ionized portion of the cloud becomes tied to the magnetic field lines and diffuses parallel to the field lines but not perpendicular to it.  In the mid-Atlantic region latitudes, the field lines are inclined by about 45 degrees to the horizontal, so the violet clouds stretch out in a slanted orientation and look more like short trails than a cloud.  Because the motion of the neutral portion of the clouds is not constrained by the magnetic field lines, they spread out more quickly and become too thin to see with the naked eye much sooner than the ionized component.

In general, the human eye does not see violet colors very well in darkness. The KiNET-X clouds will therefore be more difficult for the casual observer to see than some of the previous vapor missions launched from Wallops.

Live coverage of the mission will be available on the Wallops IBM video site (previously Ustream) beginning at 7:40 p.m. on launch day. Launch status updates can be found on the Wallops Facebook and Twitter sites.

The NASA Visitor Center at Wallops will not be open for launch viewing.

Header image: KiNet-X Visibility Map.

Keith Koehler
NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility, Virginia
757-894-4152
[email protected]

High-Wind-Warning-Graphic-from-NWS

ALERT: HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT 2pm Friday until 4am Saturday.

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Most of New Jersey, portions of eastern Pennsylvania,
  Delaware, and portions of eastern Maryland.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest wind gusts, of up to 60 mph,
  are most likely to occur from late Friday afternoon through the
  predawn hours Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive.

The Winter Weather Warning has been canceled, a Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect until 7pm Friday.

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 1
  to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an
  inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest and southern
  New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Expect slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the commute times this evening and on
  Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Patchy freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow
  will continue through the evening hours. Snow, sleet, and rain
  will then increase Friday around sunrise from the southwest as
  the next system approaches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.